By Muhammad Amaan
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NMA) has raised the alarm over the possibility of cholera and other waterborne disease outbreaks in several states in 2025 due to anticipated heavy rainfall and flooding.
In its 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction released on Monday, NiMET identified Lagos, the Federal Capital Territory, Kaduna, Ebonyi, Cross River, Abia, and Akwa Ibom as states most at risk, especially in flood-prone areas with poor sanitation practices.
“In the coastal parts of the country, an increase in rainfall, storm surge, and sea temperature rise could result in increased inundation and the chances of occurrence of water-related diseases,” the agency stated.
It warned that flooding could exacerbate the spread of cholera, particularly in communities where open defecation is practised, faecal contamination of water sources during floods poses a significant public health risk.
NiMET also flagged potential spikes in malaria, meningitis, and heat-related illnesses such as dehydration, respiratory complications, and heatstroke, due to changing climate patterns.
The agency explained that high-intensity rainfall may result in flash flooding even in areas forecast to receive near-normal precipitation.
Heavy rains can contaminate drinking water sources, heightening the risk of both malaria and waterborne diseases like cholera, dysentery, and diarrhoea.
The report further noted that damp conditions would likely lead to a surge in respiratory infections due to accelerated fungal growth.
Access to healthcare could also be compromised by infrastructure damage and displacement caused by flooding.
NiMET projected that Lagos, Delta, Bayelsa, Cross River, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom would record the highest number of rainy days in 2025, ranging from 250 to 290 days.
A second tier of states, including Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Osun, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu, will likely witness between 200 and 250 rainy days.
Central states such as Niger, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kwara, and the FCT may experience 150 to 200 rainy days.
In the north, Sokoto, Katsina, Zamfara, Kano, Jigawa, Yobe, and Borno are expected to see 110 to 150 rainy days.
Total rainfall for the year is predicted to range from 405 mm in the far north to 3,010 mm in coastal areas.
While most parts of the country will see normal to below-normal rainfall compared to long-term averages, Kaduna, Ebonyi, Cross River, Lagos, Abia, Akwa Ibom, and the FCT are expected to experience above-normal rainfall.
The onset of the rainy season is expected between March and April in southern states such as Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Ekiti, Edo, Cross River, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo, Abia, and Anambra.
In the central belt, rainfall is predicted to commence between April and May, covering Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Taraba, and the FCT.
Northern states, including Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Bauchi, Yobe, and Borno, are forecast to experience onset between early June and July.
Delayed onset is expected in parts of Plateau, Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kwara states, while an early onset is predicted for Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Anambra, and parts of Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Lagos, Edo, Enugu, Imo, and Ebonyi.
The rest of the country is expected to experience normal onset dates.
NiMET warned of severe dry spells lasting more than 15 days in parts of Oyo State, including Saki, Iseyin, Ogbomosho, Atisbo, Orelope, Itesiwaju, Olorunsogo, Kajola, Iwajowa, and Ori Ire.
A moderate dry spell lasting up to 15 days may occur in Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Cross River, Delta, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom.
For the northern states, a severe dry spell of up to 21 days is predicted during the peak rainy season, between June and August.
The agency projected that the 2025 rainy season will end between October 6 and December 17 across the country. The cessation of rainfall is expected to begin in the northern states from the first week of October and gradually progress southwards.
Over the northern parts of the country, the season is expected to end between early and late October, reaching the central states in early November and ending in mid-December in the southern coastal areas.
